Cryptocurrency Price Prediction with LSTM using Machine Learning in Python

By Value ML

In this tutorial, we will learn about forecasting the prices of a Cryptocurrency with LSTM with the help of Machine Learning implemented in Python.  Cryptocurrency prediction has now a great amount of interest in people planning to invest in them.

Let me walk you through Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. These are special kind of (RNN), useful in series-time problems

Download data from here. The dataset contains the following features:

  1. Close Price – Closing price for the currency.
  2. Volume – Volume of currency being in the trade.
  3. Open Price – Market open price for the currency.
  4. High Price – The highest price recorded of currency.
  5. Low Price – The lowest price recorded for the currency.

Forecasting Cryptocurrency prices with LSTM in Python

1. Getting the Data

First of all, make sure that you have the latest version of the following libraries being installed on your system before you proceed with coding.

import json
import requests
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from keras.models import Sequential
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error
from keras.layers import Activation, Dense, Dropout, LSTM
%matplotlib inline

The data can now be loaded into a new python file.

endpt = 'https://min-api.cryptocompare.com/data/histoday'
res = requests.get(endpt + '?fsym=BTC&tsym=CAD&limit=500')
hist = pd.DataFrame(json.loads(res.content)['Data'])
hist = hist.set_index('time')
hist.index = pd.to_datetime(hist.index, unit='s')
trgt_col = 'close'

2. Train-Test Split

Next, I split the data into two sets – training set and test set with 75% and 25% data respectively.
This step is very essential in order to make your accuracy higher. If you choose a very high training percentage, you will not be able to test the data properly and hence will not be able to make the required changes. Also if you choose a very low training percentage, your model will not be to learn properly, and hence making changes will be tough, and also accuracy will be poor.

def train_test_split(df, test_size=0.25):
    split_row = len(df) - int(test_size * len(df))
    train_data = df.iloc[:split_row]
    test_data = df.iloc[split_row:]
    return train_data, test_data
train, test = train_test_split(hist, test_size=0.25)

Let’s plot prices.

def line_plot(line1, line2, lbl1=None, lbl2=None, title='', lw=2):
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, figsize=(13, 7))
    ax.plot(line1, label=lbl1, linewidth=lw)
    ax.plot(line2, label=lbl2, linewidth=lw)
    ax.set_ylabel('price [CAD]', fontsize=14)
    ax.set_title(title, fontsize=16)
    ax.legend(loc='best', fontsize=16)
line_plot(train[trgt_col], test[trgt_col], 'training', 'test', title='')

 

3. Building the Model

The data was split into 7 days (an arbitrary number, a week here) and then normalize the data to zero bases.

def normalise_zero_base(df):
    return df / df.iloc[0] - 1

def normalise_min_max(df):
    return (df - df.min()) / (data.max() - df.min())

def extract_wndw_data(df, wndw_len=7, zero_base=True):
    wndw_data = []
    for idx in range(len(df) - wndw_len):
        temp = df[idx: (idx + wndw_len)].copy()
        if zero_base:
            temp = normalise_zero_base(temp)
        wndw_data.append(temp.values)
    return np.array(wndw_data)

Next, split the data again into two i.e. training and testing.

def prepare_data(df, trgt_col, wndw_len=10, zero_base=True, test_size=0.25):
    train_data, test_data = train_test_split(df, test_size=test_size)
    X_train = extract_wndw_data(train_data, wndw_len, zero_base)
    X_test = extract_wndw_data(test_data, wndw_len, zero_base)
    Y_train = train_data[trgt_col][wndw_len:].values
    Y_test = test_data[trgt_col][wndw_len:].values
    if zero_base:
        Y_train = Y_train / train_data[trgt_col][:-wndw_len].values - 1
        Y_test = Y_test / test_data[trgt_col][:-wndw_len].values - 1
    return train_data, test_data, X_train, X_test, Y_train, Y_test

Using a single LSTM.

def build_lstm_model(input_data, output_size, neurons=100, activ_func='linear', dropout=0.25, loss='mse', optimizer='adam'):
    model = Sequential()
    model.add(LSTM(neurons, input_shape=(input_data.shape[1], input_data.shape[2])))
    model.add(Dropout(dropout))
    model.add(Dense(units=output_size))
    model.add(Activation(activ_func))
    model.compile(loss=loss, optimizer=optimizer)
    return model

Training the model.

np.random.seed(42)
train, test, X_train, X_test, Y_train, Y_test = prepare_data(
    hist, trgt_col, wndw_len=5, zero_base=True, test_size=0.2)
model = build_lstm_model(
    X_train, output_size=1, neurons=100, dropout=0.25, loss='mse',
    optimizer='adam')
history = model.fit(
    X_train, Y_train, epochs=50, batch_size=16, verbose=1, shuffle=True)
Epoch 1/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 933us/step - loss: 0.0111
Epoch 2/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 267us/step - loss: 0.0061
Epoch 3/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 273us/step - loss: 0.0041
Epoch 4/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 266us/step - loss: 0.0060
Epoch 5/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 304us/step - loss: 0.0033
Epoch 6/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 311us/step - loss: 0.0054
Epoch 7/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 272us/step - loss: 0.0031
Epoch 8/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 277us/step - loss: 0.0031
Epoch 9/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 277us/step - loss: 0.0027
Epoch 10/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 275us/step - loss: 0.0035
Epoch 11/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 267us/step - loss: 0.0026
Epoch 12/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 272us/step - loss: 0.0027
Epoch 13/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 272us/step - loss: 0.0027
Epoch 14/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 274us/step - loss: 0.0023
Epoch 15/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 302us/step - loss: 0.0026
Epoch 16/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 289us/step - loss: 0.0024
Epoch 17/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 272us/step - loss: 0.0021
Epoch 18/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 266us/step - loss: 0.0028
Epoch 19/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 267us/step - loss: 0.0021
Epoch 20/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 280us/step - loss: 0.0020
Epoch 21/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 304us/step - loss: 0.0029
Epoch 22/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 304us/step - loss: 0.0020
Epoch 23/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 280us/step - loss: 0.0020
Epoch 24/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 313us/step - loss: 0.0019
Epoch 25/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 289us/step - loss: 0.0023
Epoch 26/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 283us/step - loss: 0.0022
Epoch 27/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 272us/step - loss: 0.0018
Epoch 28/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 276us/step - loss: 0.0017
Epoch 29/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 276us/step - loss: 0.0018
Epoch 30/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 268us/step - loss: 0.0016
Epoch 31/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 270us/step - loss: 0.0017
Epoch 32/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 279us/step - loss: 0.0020
Epoch 33/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 311us/step - loss: 0.0018
Epoch 34/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 279us/step - loss: 0.0018
Epoch 35/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 265us/step - loss: 0.0017
Epoch 36/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 266us/step - loss: 0.0022
Epoch 37/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 271us/step - loss: 0.0017
Epoch 38/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 293us/step - loss: 0.0032
Epoch 39/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 271us/step - loss: 0.0023
Epoch 40/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 267us/step - loss: 0.0021
Epoch 41/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 267us/step - loss: 0.0016
Epoch 42/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 298us/step - loss: 0.0016
Epoch 43/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 272us/step - loss: 0.0018
Epoch 44/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 290us/step - loss: 0.0019
Epoch 45/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 271us/step - loss: 0.0017
Epoch 46/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 270us/step - loss: 0.0018
Epoch 47/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 273us/step - loss: 0.0017
Epoch 48/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 275us/step - loss: 0.0015
Epoch 49/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 274us/step - loss: 0.0015
Epoch 50/50
396/396 [==============================] - 0s 275us/step - loss: 0.0017

4. Results

Let us now look at the predicted values and the actual values and see how accurate our model is.

target = test[trgt_col][wndw_len:]
pred = model.predict(X_test).squeeze()
pred = test[trgt_col].values[:-wndw_len] * (preds + 1)
pred = pd.Series(index=targets.index, data=preds)
line_plot(target, pred, 'actual', 'prediction', lw=3)

 

Let’s zoom into 1 month’s time span.

n = 30
line_plot(targets[-n:], preds[-n:], 'actual', 'prediction')

 

Cryptocurrency Price Prediction with LSTM using Machine Learning in Python

Congratulations! You have predicted the cryptocurrency prices. So cryptocurrency price prediction with LSTM using Machine Learning in Python has been done successfully.

Hope you had fun learning with me. Have a good day and happy learning

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